Nasdaq is back to 2020 but all I care about are supply chain capabilities


Many are talking about the risk of inflation, including the FED. Powell's latest speech touched on that point. He thinks inflation will be temporary, mostly correlated with the pent-up demand we have. Supply chains and service providers will have to adapt to the new normal. Once that adaptation happens, inflation will be temporary. One can only hope.

As I was doing chores yesterday, I was listening to his speech last night.

  1. They print an absurd amount of money
  2. You have little places to spend it since you are mostly home (and at this point, maxed out your digital consumption possibilities)
  3. You get vaccinated. It all opens up. Let's rage!
  4. But then, every single place is at maximum capacity, not being able to properly service you. It all seems so expensive... with an increase in demand, without the correct supply adaptation, prices well... they go up.

The more you print dollars, the less value they have. It is all not so funny that the SEC paid a visit to  Michael Burry this past week, after his tweets (that are now deleted). I agree with him.

This is a pretty complex scenario, one that could cause a thermonuclear correction in the stock market.

Howard Marks made interesting points about pent-up demand in his latest memo.

Just buying Bitcoin isn't enough of a hedge. Make sure you are a) investing only with your money (no leverage) b) have the necessary mechanisms in place for havoc protection and advantage taking.

I am perma-long tech and bought more stocks two weeks ago. Most of my investments now (after 18 months of more aggressive trading) are all with a 2-5 year horizon.

Starting this week I am going to take a break from public equities and focus all my capital on a less risky asset: private startups!

One must always have skin in all the games one plays.

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